Inflation threat: No more

In line with Bahana (0.2% m-m, 4.88% y-y) and consensus (0.15% m-m, 4.85% y-y) estimates, November inflation is back at 0.21% m-m or 4.89% y-y. Food prices returned to positive territory on their seasonal trend to 0.33% m-m or 4.96% y-y (October: -1.06% m-m), supported by vegetable and fish prices, while vegetable fat and cooking oil saw some deflation in November.

Given the absence of a fuel-price shock limiting inflation upside risk, we saw continued low transportation (exhibit 1) at 0.06% m-m or 3.47% y-y (October: 0.02% m-m) and clothing deflation at -0.23% m-m or 4.00% y-y (October: 0.25% m-m), although processed-food price inflation was still in a positive trend at 0.47% m-m or 7.97% y-y (October: 0.40% m-m) with higher healthcare inflation of 0.44% m-m or 5.84% y-y (October: 0.29%).

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